BTC is being framed as stronger than the macro tape, with October weak so far, long-term holders rotating out, but ETF flows and JPMorgan’s new stance still leaning constructive. The bigger thesis is that compute scarcity, not just crypto, is the main trade: SpaceX, Tesla, Anthropic, and the big AI spenders are all tied to a looming AI compute shortfall and winner-take-most capex. Meanwhile, banks and regulators are moving deeper into Bitcoin custody and spot access, from Germany and Switzerland to Schwab, Fidelity, and Deutsche Bank. The setup ends on near-term catalysts: TSLA earnings tomorrow, another live trading session, and a check on whether BTC’s weekly trend stays intact by week-end.
Fed is not hiking this week; Brent is at $110 and the 10-year is at 5%, with the 5% yield framed as smashing deficits, raising inflation, and forcing more money printing that benefits hard assets and pressures risk assets.
US home sales are at record lows because high rates and no money are locking people into mortgages, which is also said to freeze contracts, mortgages, insurance, homebuilding, inspections, and repairs in the mortgage food chain.
BTC is down 1.3% in October even though October is normally its best month; September is normally its worst month, yet last September was “awesome.”
Long-term BTC holders, defined as >155 days, have cut holdings by about 350,000 BTC since July, roughly 100,000 a month; the counter-theory is that OG holders moved coins from cold storage into custody vehicles and ETFs such as Fidelity, Schwab, and BlackRock.
Crypto Fear & Greed is 55, called very high; over 7 days BTC is +0.85%, BNB +0.68%, ETH -0.3%, and over 30 days BTC is +1.5%, ETH -7.5%, SOL -4%, XRP -6.2%.
BTC weekly trend is still “nicely blue,” with buy signals but no sell signals and only a slight dip plus sideways chop; blue is said to persist for the next three or four years and red shadows mark bear markets.
BTC ETFs had their best day in a month, with IBIT driving about two-thirds of a billion dollars and offsetting selling from GBTC and FBTC; the trend is to be watched for a few days to see whether it’s back by week-end.
JP Morgan is said to have flipped from calling BTC a tool for drug dealers and money launderers to saying banks are the real money launderers because BTC is easy to track on an immutable record, and it now ranks BTC #1 among the best long-term duration assets for 2027.
JP Morgan’s expected-case BTC model is 10% CAGR over the next 10 years; with BTC around $82,000-$83,000, that implies about $212,000 by 2036.
In Germany, Sparcasta Network, said to serve 50 million Germans and 350 banks, started offering BTC and crypto trading plus custody, including XRP, Solana, ETH and euro cents; Deutsche Bank is also adopting BTC custody, while Schwab got into custody last week and Fidelity was already there.
FINMA approved Switzerland’s first spot BTC ETF open to retail investors, after it had previously been limited to institutional clients and high-net-worth investors.
BlackRock launched PEIT, an ETF designed to cap upside while providing downside protection for BTC holders worried about volatility.
Solana ETF flows have had negative days for the last 10 days, but the cumulative move is said to be smaller than one big green bar on the chart, which was described as the biggest ETF day ever for Solana.
Solana tokenization is described as parabolic, with 1.5 million stockholders on the chain, tokenized volume up 25.6x in the last five quarters to $7.12 billion, and about $5,000 average per user.
‘Salana Alpen Globe’ goes live tomorrow and is framed as making Solana the fastest chain on the planet; AI agents are tied to blockchain usage, with Finality pitched as the product for AI agents because they can’t wait around.
SpaceX is said to have earnings that beat hard: $14.6 billion quarterly revenue, adjusted EBITDA up 306% y/y, net income of $4.4 billion, 1.7 gigs of compute running, and EPS of 35; the stock was described as moving after hours on the beat.
The stock tape is described as diverging from crypto, with stock Fear & Greed at 28 and that gap expected to persist for at least 2-3 months; tech over 7 days was mixed, with META down, NVDA down 3.5%, GOOGL down 4%, AMZN and TSLA slightly up, and AMD down.
The focus is disruption tech, AI, and crypto rather than retail or bank stocks; the claim is that spending is shifting from the big five of GOOGL, AMZN, META, MSFT, and ORCL to a new heavyweight in SpaceX.
The big six spenders are said to spend at least $1.3 trillion next year, while Anthropic is said to be financing compute through Blackstone at more than 10% to buy 1.5 gigawatts of Google TPUs, with data-center bottlenecks in cooling, wiring, connectivity, and behind-the-meter power.
The compute thesis is that whoever has the most compute wins, with a 2031 AI-compute shortfall estimated at 280-300 gigawatts and the implication that anyone with compute can sell it at extreme margins because demand for intelligence keeps rising.
TSLA is framed as a major near-term catalyst: ARK issued a new 2031 price model, the earnings call is tomorrow, driverless Model Y’s and cybercabs are said to be running, roughly 1,300 driverless cars are on the road mostly in Texas, and the fleet has reached 1 million driverless miles about 4x faster than Waymo.
Tesla’s annual report cover is said to show mass production of Optimus V3, late by a couple of weeks versus June/July expectations; China-supplied magnets and actuators are highlighted, and the humanoid leg actuator is said to match the new Roadster’s rear actuator.
A Terraab wafer-factory JV is pitched as aiming to be the biggest factory on earth, targeting 100 million wafers a month or a year, with partners including INTC, TSMC, NVDA, LMR, AMAT, and South Korean companies; SpaceX is also said to be heading toward 2.7 gigs by year-end and 10 gigs by end-2027, with buildouts every 9-12 weeks versus 2.5-4 years for others.