SPY is losing structure on a bearish evening star, with 762 as the key hold; a break targets 757, then 753, while a 753 bounce could reach 800. The bigger macro claim is that the Fed owns about 52.5% of the $1T-plus 10- to 15-year coupon Treasury bucket, so a fight over inflation, yields, and debt supply could spill into mortgages, corporate refinancing, the dollar, banks, and high-growth tech. NVDA is treated as the market’s AI leader but is in a rare 7-day selloff into Wednesday earnings, setting up a bounce trade with 205 risk, 217 options target, and 235 if the rounded double-bottom/cup reversal works. INTC is framed as a 2027 hold tied to Nancy Pelosi’s 10,000-share buy and a bottoming/inverse H&S setup around 108, with entries at 90 and 82, and a tight 86 stop on the latest dip buy.
SPY is slowly descending, no longer holding structure, and the chart is bearish on an evening star pattern.
SPY has a key level at 762; a break below it would signal a gap fill, with support next near 757.
If SPY loses 757, 753 is the last bounce level discussed, and that bounce scenario could push SPY back to 800.
The Fed owns about 52.5% of all outstanding coupon Treasuries with 10 to 15 years to maturity — roughly $540B of a little over $1T in that bucket.
That 52.5% figure applies only to the 10- to 15-year coupon Treasury bucket, not all U.S. government debt.
If inflation stays high and the Fed keeps policy tight, buyers could demand higher yields; if the Fed stops rolling over securities or cuts holdings, the private market must absorb more supply.
Higher yields would pressure bond prices, lift long-term rates, raise mortgage and corporate refinancing costs, increase federal interest expense, and hit high-growth tech valuations.
The setup is framed as a policy trap: fight inflation hard and crush markets, housing, and government finances; support Treasury markets and risk keeping conditions too loose and inflation returning.
NVDA has dropped for seven straight days, and today is described as a complete flush.
NVDA has beaten Wall Street expectations in the last four quarters, but the stock fell the next day in all four cases.
A 7-day NVDA losing streak has reportedly happened only twice in the last 10 years; one prior episode saw a 1.8% bounce the next session, then a 1.9% drop a month later, then a 16.6% decline before an October 14 bottom, followed by a 23.4% gain three months after the seventh red day.
In the 2019 NVDA example, the stock fell one more session, then recovered quickly and was up about 23% three months later.
The NVDA trade plan is for a bounce tomorrow and possibly green days into Wednesday, with a stop around 205, an options profit target at 217, and a rounded double-bottom/cup pattern pointing to 235.
INTC is pitched as the Nancy Pelosi pick: Pelosi bought 10,000 shares and spent about half a million dollars on leaps, with the trade intended to be held into 2027.
INTC is described as bottoming now, with a neckline near 108 for a potential inverse head-and-shoulders, an entry at 90, a prior stop-out at 92 after a move to around 92.60, a new dip entry today, and a stop around 86 with another shot at 82 if stopped.
INTC is said to become only 'safe' again above 90, and the setup is compared with PLTR trading around 132 before a breakout back to the top of its range.