Silver is expected to enter a substantial cooloff around early 2026, with the next few weeks still pressured by a rising Dixie and a rising 10-year yield. The bearish case ties silver’s pullback to midterm-year seasonality, parabolic-advance digestion, and the idea that silver often marks its low before yields top, not after. The near-term risk is a test of whether silver can break $60 if the 10-year reaches 5.5, but the larger setup still points to a consolidation base before another advance later in the decade.
A substantial silver cooloff is expected to start around early 2026, and 9 months into that cooloff would imply silver may be nearing the end of "timebased capitulation."
Silver is down in part because the Dixie is rising; silver typically performs poorly when the US dollar index is heading higher.
The 10-year yield keeps rising, and the notes tie silver weakness to rising yields using 2018 and 2022 as examples when silver fell while the 10-year climbed.
Long-end yields have tended to fall after midterms in midterm years, but the 10-year may not start declining until after the midterm election.
Silver tends to sniff out its low before yields top; in 2022 the silver low came around the time yields topped, and in 2018 metals bottomed around the time yields topped.
The current cycle is expected to follow that pattern, with silver finding its low before or around the time the 10-year yield tops.
The 10-year yield is rising every single week now, with silver holding only while the 10-year sits near 5.3; 5.5 on the 10-year is posed as the threshold question for whether silver breaks $60.
Silver’s decline is framed as digestion after a parabolic advance, with parabolic rises often needing long consolidations; the 1974 silver advance is cited as the template, followed by a lower-level consolidation.
Peak fear would be a return to the $50 area, which was tested in 1980 and again in 2011; under a 1974-style drawdown, the drop would be about 41%, and silver has already fallen more than 50% from the relevant high.
Pressure on silver is expected to continue for a few more weeks, with the low test window over the next few weeks while yields keep climbing and weakness likely cresting before year-end.
The timing is compared with BTC: BTC lows are described as February and March lows in the same cycle, and silver’s first low is also identified as February with another low in March.
BTC is described as moving from 15,000 to 126K between late 2022 and late 2025, while silver is described as moving from about $17 in late 2022 to about 121 over the same roughly three-year span.
The claim is that BTC’s and silver’s gains were essentially the same in magnitude, but BTC realized its returns earlier in the cycle while silver’s came later.
Historically, silver tends to sniff out a low between September and November in the fourth quarter of the midterm year, then improve the following year, with 2023 and 2019 cited as the rebound examples after weak 2022 and 2018 periods.
If silver does not get the expected $60-breaking weakness in the next couple of months, the notes say the people waiting for that drop will likely flip bullish; after the low, silver is expected to spend a long consolidation building a base before slowly rising and eventually setting up another parabolic advance into the end of the decade.