Crypto held up while AI got hit, with BTC framed as a “Rektember bounce” despite a 4-day ETF bleed of nearly $462.7 million after five straight weeks of $5 billion inflows. The core setup is still bullish: BTC is above the 200-day at $70,000 and 200-week at 65K, the custom monthly trend turned blue, and 81,700 is the breakout line that would confirm the bull market. The other big catalyst is policy: Clarity Act approval odds are said to have risen to 69% before a July 1, 2027 deadline, while the Fed meeting and an 85% hike probability are keeping buyers sidelined. STRC is treated as a separate flywheel for MSTR, with STRC pushed back to $99, the NAV premium framework used to compare BTC-treasury names, and the argument that confidence in STRC at $100 would feed more BTC buying.
BTC saw a 4-day ETF bleed last week, with nearly $462.7 million out after five weeks of $5 billion in inflows; one day on September 10 was nearly $300 million out.
The $462.7 million outflow is framed as only about 10% of the prior $5 billion inflow, so the bleed is treated as not concerning.
BTC is above the 200-day moving average at exactly $70,000 and above the 200-week moving average at 65K.
BTC’s monthly optimized trend turned blue, described as bullish, after the usual orange stretch that normally lasts a year to 400 days but this time lasted about 270 days.
The top-and-bottom indicator, based on 20 onchain indicators and live feeds, is still in the buy zone and is said to have turned up for a while before turning back down.
CryptoQuant-confirmed 82K is the key resistance, with 81,700 named as the level that would confirm the bull market if broken.
BTC hit 82K twice during the tariff tantrums in March and April 2025, then got rejected there again in May 2026 and a couple of weeks ago.
The tabby model says the bear market is over.
Clarity Act approval odds are put at 69%, with approval defined as before July 1, 2027; personal odds for passage this year are put below 10%.
The Clarity Act meeting is set for September 15 at 2:15 p.m. Eastern, while the Fed meeting is said to be Wednesday with an 85% chance of a rate hike.
STRC was bought heavily by MSTR instead of BTC or an ATM, and that pushed STRC back to $99; MSTR is said to have used some cash or balance sheet to buy STRC, adding about $139 million to the bid.
STRC back at $99 is treated as a confidence reset for the next move to $100, which is presented as a flywheel for Saylor to buy more BTC.
ASST added 469 BTC and now holds exactly 25,000 BTC.
The River Group TRDFI chart is cited for portfolio allocations to BTC: JP Morgan 0% to 1%, BlackRock and Van 1% to 2.5%, Morgan Stanley 2% to 4%, Fidelity and Schwab 5% to 6%, and BBVA 7%.
Morgan Stanley’s new BTC ETF is said to already have over $600 million after a short time.
The BTC treasury NAV-premium model puts MSTR at 0.79 NAV premium, ASST at 1.4, MARA at 1.59, and CLSK at 3.16; one share of MSTR is said to give about $1.27 in BTC exposure.
The same NAV-premium framework says SpaceX holds 18,712 BTC, COIN holds 17,300, MARA sold about 15,000 during the bear, CLSK adds about 600 per month, RIOT sold a little, and HUT sold a little.
Tesla and SpaceX are said to have basically 30,000 BTC combined, while Neurolink and the Boring Company are also said to hold some BTC.
If BTC gets back above 90K, liquidation concerns are said to normalize again; STRC’s move back to 99 is called not normal, and its August 2025 history is described as a slow climb that has not spent much time near $100.
The stated case for BTC is that risk-asset drawdowns are already priced in, the Clarity Act fight is driven by bankster-aligned politicians who don’t want stablecoin yield, and STRC yields 12% for buyers.
Jensen Huang was said to be on the phone live with the US president during an all-in pod event, with Dario voting discussed, and robots were dismissed as not threatening jobs for retirees yet.