Risk-off into midterm-election season is the frame: markets are said to weaken on average 20% in midterm years, with August-to-October the usual danger window before a post-election rally. The watchlist splits between names still acting well — MU, MSFT, CRM, POET — and names being managed around catalysts, especially TSLA into Wednesday after the close. TSLA is the core setup: bearish 2026 trend, a weekly chart just above the 100-day moving average, implied move pricing above the recent average, and put flow all argue for downside risk if earnings only deliver a pop that fades.
Midterm election years are said to average a 20% market decline, with uncertainty around elections driving risk-off behavior.
The market is described as generally fine through July, then vulnerable in August through October, then rallying after the election uncertainty clears.
MU remains above the critical 861 level, with a stop-loss at 859.90.
NFLX was bought on a bounce, the bounce faded, and the position was stopped out; reentry waits for fresh strength.
PFE ran to $25.65, missed the $25.75 target, then stopped out below $25; the plan is to stay out until PFE regains $25.
POET is being accumulated slowly with no hard stop-loss yet because the stock is not pumping.
MSFT is holding up extremely well even on a day when many stocks were weak.
MSFT has a breakout trigger above 402.40 this week, with 431 as the target.
CRM was first flagged two or three weeks ago above 170, with more confidence above 172; at 173 it is still in play and showing strength on a bearish day.
TSLA’s bearish case is that its price already reflects a ton of success — including Optimus robots and robo-taxi — while free cash flow stays under pressure from AI infrastructure deployment, Optimus robots, data centers, and compute until meaningful revenues arrive.
TSLA earnings are scheduled for Wednesday after the market close, and there is no appetite to front-run major risk into that catalyst.
TSLA has been bearish all of 2026, with a lower high in May and price sitting just above the weekly 100-day moving average into earnings.
TSLA breaking the 100-day moving average is framed as the point where the downtrend should worsen; the 100 EMA is said to be around 360.
TSLA support is laid out at about 350, then 322, then 300, with the bottom of the ascending channel at 274.
TSLA typically can move $100 to $200 in 30 to 60 days, then fades the top for a long time, which is why retail dip-buying often gets trapped.
TSLA would need a beat of the whisper number plus higher forward guidance to keep moving up.
The TSLA call-sale trade was above 425, based on the view that the stock would not get there and that high implied volatility would decay.
If TSLA earnings produce a pop that fades quickly, a much bigger drop is expected afterward.
Options pricing implies a 7.1% TSLA move versus a 4.3% recent average into earnings, and Friday tape showed buyers of 35,552 of the July 24 $150 puts.
TSLA is treated as a bearish hedge/catalyst trade rather than a lotto play, while still carrying a long-term $1,000 stock thesis.
Michael Burry’s TSLA bearish positioning is credited with helping his portfolio add millions so far this year.