H first calls the post-selloff setup a "FOMO chase," saying the recovery was "absolutely bonkers" because roughly 70% to 75% of the damage from one of the worst Julys ever for AI stocks was recouped within two days.
H first says he told viewers last week the selloff was overblown, checked that call against this week, and says the VIX peaked at 20.66 on the 29th — which he says was the perfect signal before the market sold off.
H first says the QQQ bottomed last week, touched its 200-day moving average around 662, then ripped back above 720 and is now 722; he also says the S&P 500 broke to another new all-time high today.
H first says the HR model keeps making new all-time highs after a few weeks of sideways chop, and that traders are benefiting from violent swings that his models make "pretty darn predictable."
H first says bears are missing AI, keep calling for the biggest crash since 1987, and that the S&P 500 at a PE of 20 is "as cheap as it ever gets" because AI is changing everything.
H first says gold was very strong today, which pushed the Bitcoin-gold chart lower, and ties gold strength to fiat weakness after the yen needed support last week and the Indian rupee needed a bailout today.
H first says Bitcoin is still around 64K and change, has a buy signal, has strong support at 59K, and he expected it to chop between 62K and 65K until something big happens like ETF buyers or Michael Saylor buying in force.
H first says ETH had a "1500 killbox double buy signal," is about 8% below its 200-day moving average at 2,085, and could run straight to 4,000, 4,500, or 5,000 if it breaks above that level.
H first says Solana has "sucked wind," but still sits above the layer-one ATR line, has a 200-day moving average near 85 that keeps drifting lower, and he may have perped it in the $64 to $74 range without a catalyst.
H first says AI agents are coming, the winner will take most, and names Cloudflare, Coinbase, and MicroStrategy as companies getting into that theme.
H first says MicroStrategy is under its 200-day moving average, is ATMing while Bitcoin rises and the stock stays flat, and that Michael Saylor has been selling stock regularly since July 2 to raise cash and support STRC, which he says was at $94 after making him nervous at $72.
H first says Tesla is disappointing, but in the segment focused on it the stock bounced from exact support at 298-297 on the 29th up to 327, is now around 108 in the notes, and faces a big unlock tomorrow with more unlocks coming fast through October.
The Tesla-SpaceX pair trade is framed as a live arb setup: the yellow line at 2.6 SpaceX per Tesla share is described as strong support, the ratio could move to 3.2, and then the trade would likely mean-revert.
The panel says Nvidia had exact support at 190 a week ago, rebounded 3.43% today, now carries a 5.31 trillion market cap, and is the cheapest it has ever been on PE; Elon Musk is said to be buying Nvidia chips for SpaceX compute.
The panel says Micron crashed to the 739 level discussed six days ago, was a great kill zone to build a bag, and that July was rough but good for stacking names like Micron, Marvel, and Tesla.
The panel says Palantir bounced cleanly off level four, surged straight to 920, and is headed to 1,600 in the speaker’s view; Marvel bounced off level three, surged to 219 and is now 210, with 164 called a very nice kill zone and a long-term target of 1,000.
The panel prefers Google over Microsoft, saying Google has better financials, faster growth, a better PE, and faster GCP growth, while Microsoft is just fairly valued; Google is said to belong at 450, but it was up at 382 today and then fell to 355.
H first says AMD broke down through 480 last week, tanked to 420, then recovered after earnings despite capex being higher than expected; Broadcom gave a sell signal at 430, later gave a buy signal, and is now breaking out toward a new all-time high near 500.
In the third segment, the speaker says the asset he was discussing has been range-bound since February, keeps selling off after earnings, and that the trend, mean reversion, confluence, and ATR models all point to a likely drop under the 200-day moving average at 152 instead of a breakout back to 207.
The third segment also says copper hit a new all-time high at 68,278, and the speaker is long copper via options and leaps because AI growth and electrification should keep increasing demand.
The same segment says Solana still has the users, the money, and the broadest DApp breadth among layer 1s; Sui is quoted at 800,000 users and 7 million daily transactions versus Solana’s 3.5 million users and 76 million daily transactions, and the speaker says Solana is probably the winning L1.
That crypto discussion also says Hype is very strong, trading around 57 after a new all-time high to 77, with a suggested buy at 50 and sell at 75, while Hyperliquid makes a lot of money but lacks a moat.
The third segment says the speaker bought a truckload of UMAC at 19 about six days ago, thinks it has incredible growth and big upside, expects it to beat earnings, and says it is not quite profitable yet but likely will be as it turns around.
The third segment also says Corning Incorporated, identified as GLW, trades at a PE of 73 versus Micron at 5, which is why the speaker prefers Micron, Marvel, and Nvidia on risk-reward.
Yosi says he uses Hanashi on bumpy 4-hour charts because it smooths volatility and gives more precise signals, and he uses line view for distance and candles for day-to-day trading.
Yosi says a Dan SL trade using $17.50 leaps financed by selling $20 puts at a $1 net debit turned into a 9x move, with the position worth $9 a share after being opened at $19.
Yosi says he has been trading ALAB by selling the $500 calls for about $60, that those calls were worth three or less, and that the odds of ALAB breaking above 500 in the next 12 trading days were only 2% to 3%.
Yosi says the ATR model is correct 88.82% of the time and the trend model 80.72% of the time when they flip, and that when both turn the same way they create the buy or sell signal.
Yosi closes by saying his strategy is to buy and sell around volatility repeatedly, potentially selling puts at the bottom and calls at the top to amplify gains, and invites viewers back next Wednesday.
Sponsored segment: the speaker promoted a Substack on SpaceX earnings and said he was very excited about it.