The market is framed as strong but not euphoric: broad earnings, not geopolitics, are driving a rally that still looks normal versus past bull cycles. Current valuations on the S&P 500 are described as fair to slightly above average, while earnings breadth, unemployment, CPI, retail spending, and IPO activity all argue against a 2021-style blowoff. The core stance is to stay invested for 10-20 years, buy quality, add on dips, and trim into strength instead of trying to time the top. The final message is process-heavy: build a system, research slowly, and use the provided tools/community if needed.
Bloom Energy is up 200%, MSTR is up 200%, while the S&P 500 is up 19% over the last 12 months and the NASDAQ almost 25%.
The market is mapped onto a 100-year hope-to-euphoria-to-depression cycle: stage 5 equals downside, stages 1-3 equal upside; 2021 is labeled euphoria and 2022 depression.
Michael Burry calls the setup a dot-com replay, while Tom Lee says it is only the first or second inning of a long game.
The S&P 500 forward P/E is 20, roughly equal to the 10-year average forward P/E of 20 and exactly between 2022 at 17 and 2023 at 23; trailing P/E is 25, down from 28 last year.
The S&P 500 rose from 3,900 to 7,700 in four years, a 100% gain; the average bull run lasts 5.5 years and gains 265%, so this one is still below average on length and performance.
Using the 1994 Netscape/internet analogy, the NASDAQ gained 600% from 1994 to 1998; four years after ChatGPT, the market is up about 150%, still far below the late-1990s internet-cycle move.
Year-to-date in September, the S&P 500 is up 13%, about 3% above its average annual 10% return, and that deviation is framed as meaningless relative to normal yearly swings.
Geopolitics and oil are dismissed as the main market driver; earnings are the key, with 87% of S&P 500 companies beating EPS last quarter versus a 10-year average of 76%, EPS up 52% versus 23% expected, and revenue up 15%.
NVDA posted 106% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth, is still up 18% on a company worth multiple trillions, and was guided for 70%; its price-to-sales fell from 25 to 18 and it is said to trade at 0.4 PEG, cheaper than 2 years ago.
The Mag 7 delivered 119% earnings growth, six of seven beat EPS by 66% above estimates, and 10 of 11 S&P sectors grew earnings; the equal-weight S&P 500 is up 16% YTD, 3 points ahead of the cap-weighted index.
The Fed is not helping: money supply is stagnant and rates are held at 3.5%; if money supply rises and cuts start, that would only add fuel.
Macro and consumer data are still solid: unemployment is 4%, CPI is 3.5%, and retail spending is growing 5% a year.
IPO activity is up 100% from last year with 106 IPOs so far in September, annualizing to about 140 in 2026 and maybe 150 by year-end, still far below 1999's 460; day-one IPO performance is 19% versus 72% in the dot-com era.
The action from 4,800 in 2021 to 3,600 in 2022, then back to 7,700, is cast as a normal cycle with a 60% gain over 5 years, or 12% a year, just 2 points above the 10% average.
The operating plan is to buy better companies and hold them longer, treat 20% drawdowns from a 52-week high as a cue to deploy 150% instead of 50%, and trim 10%, 20%, or 30% once unrealized gains hit 50%, 100%, or 150%.