PLTR’s 93% revenue growth, 155 rule of 40, and 2026 guide to $8.2B are framed as proof the business is still early, even though the stock was already down almost 40% from the November peak near 205 and still negative year to date. The core argument is that a $1T valuation is plausible, but only if growth eventually decelerates and multiples compress; otherwise the implied valuation becomes absurd. The trade thesis is not blind FOMO: PLTR is called extremely expensive, highly volatile, and exposed to key-man and slowdown risk, so the position should be built with DCA and active trimming. A sponsored academy pitch closes the video.
PLTR posted $1.94B revenue, adjusted EPS of $0.41, US commercial revenue of $764M (+150%), US government revenue of $890M (+90%), rule of 40 of 155, 62% operating margin, and US commercial remaining deal value of $6.2B (+124%).
PLTR’s 2026 guidance is $8.2B, implying the second half of the year is much stronger than the first half.
PLTR closed 220 deals worth $1M+; 98 worth $5M+; and 73 worth $10M+.
A third of the $1M+ deals are $10M deals, used to argue existing customers are spending deeper inside PLTR and switching costs are effectively impossible.
PLTR is described as expensive at 138 trailing P/E, 77 forward P/E, and 1.5 PEG.
PLTR was down almost 40% from the November peak near 205 coming into earnings, and still down year to date and over the past 6 months despite the fundamentals.
The revenue mix is framed as extreme: commercial growth at 149% and government growth at 90%, with government described as the larger base business now.
The government and commercial markets are both said to be in an AI arms race, and PLTR is positioned in both.
A reverse-valuation case says a 2030 terminal P/E of 40 would require 61% revenue growth; at 50 trailing P/E the growth needed drops to 53%, and at 60 trailing P/E it drops to 46%.
A $1T valuation by 2030 is said to require growth deceleration, not acceleration; if PLTR keeps current growth, the implied valuation becomes astronomical.
Three 2030 scenarios are laid out for a $1T valuation: 40% revenue growth implies 109 trailing P/E, 55% growth implies 67 trailing P/E, and 70% growth implies 51 P/E.
A 2028 path is also cited: 70% revenue growth by 2028 at 94x sales could get PLTR to $1T sooner.
At about 3.24% annual share-count growth, the model says PLTR would need $367 per share to reach $1T, framed as roughly 3x money.
Alex Karp leaving is flagged as major key-man risk, with the claim that PLTR would be worth much less without him.
If PLTR reaches $600 per share in two years, the valuation misunderstanding is said to disappear, but pricing could become a problem.
The stated trading plan is DCA at fixed amounts, double down when the stock is 20% or more below the 52-week high, trim 10% at every 50% profit, and trim more if the position is up 100%.