Tom Nash’s core argument is that Palantir’s latest quarter strengthens, rather than weakens, the long-term bull case: he says the company posted extreme growth and margins, yet the stock is still well below its November 2025 highs and the path to a $1 trillion valuation is mathematically workable. He frames the market’s mistake as focusing on current multiples instead of how revenue growth and valuation compression can interact over time, while warning the stock is too expensive and volatile to buy for FOMO. He also says Palantir’s business is broader than many think, with both U.S. commercial and U.S. government still compounding hard. His conclusion is that PLTR can be a long-term compounding winner, but only for investors willing to use a disciplined plan and accept a lot of volatility.
Tom Nash says he told viewers back in 2022, when Palantir traded at $6, that the company still had a long runway, and he now thinks he may have undershot the business’s true potential.
He says Palantir just delivered another monster quarter and that it may be more than a $1 trillion company, not less.
He says the stock came into earnings down almost 40% from the November peak of 205, and that it is still far from getting back to the $200 level.
He says Palantir is still down year to date, still down significantly over the past 6 months, and still down a lot from November 2025 despite strong fundamentals.
He says revenue was $1.94 billion, up 93%, adjusted EPS was $0.41 and beat by 17%, U.S. commercial revenue was $764 million up 150%, and U.S. government revenue was $890 million up 90%.
He says the quarter’s Rule of 40 was 155 and operating margin was 62%, which he calls one of the best sets of results from any company in recent history.
He says U.S. commercial remaining deal value was $6.2 billion, up 124%, and that Palantir closed 220 deals of $1 million or more, 98 deals of $5 million or more, and 73 deals of $10 million or more.
He says roughly a third of the million-dollar deals are now $10 million deals, which he uses to argue customers are spending more inside the platform and that switching out of Palantir is not surmountable.
He says Palantir guided to $8.2 billion for 2026, which he reads as implying the second half of the year will be significantly better than the first half.
He says the business is not just a U.S. commercial story because commercial growth is 149% and government revenue growth is 90%, and he argues government is no longer a dying business because there is an AI arms race there too.
He says Palantir’s valuation is expensive, citing a 138 trailing P/E, 77 forward P/E, and 1.5 PEG ratio, and warns viewers not to buy it for the wrong reasons or out of FOMO.
He says investors should expect plenty of chaos ahead and not a straight-line move higher; instead they need a thesis, long-term conviction, and patience.
He says the $1 trillion case is built on revenue growth decelerating, not accelerating, and that if growth stayed constant the implied share price would lead to astronomical valuations.
He says his bare case assumes 40% revenue growth and requires a 2030 P/E of 109 to hit $1 trillion; his base case assumes 55% growth and requires a 67 trailing P/E; and if revenue grows 70%, it needs only a 51 P/E to reach $1 trillion.
He says Palantir could hit $1 trillion as soon as 2028 if it grows revenue 70% by then and trades at 94 times sales, and even with share count growing about 3.24% per year the company would need $367 per share to reach $1 trillion, which he calls a 3x move.