Crypto’s total market cap is still only about $2.88T and remains below a fair-value logarithmic aggression line, so the thesis is that the asset class is still undervalued despite a Q3 move that was stronger than a normal midterm-year pattern. The 2026 setup is framed as different from prior midterm years because the market moved up more in Q3, likely because it started from a deeper undervaluation, while the long-run cadence still points from undervaluation toward possible overvaluation as conditions loosen. The prior cycle never stayed durably overvalued because monetary policy stayed tight, but a future cycle without that constraint could spend longer above fair value. The call is for the crypto asset class to head toward roughly $10T, plus or minus a few trillion, as the cycle progresses.
Crypto’s total market cap is about $2.88T as of 2026-10-02.
That $2.88T level is still below the fair-value logarithmic aggression line.
2026 undervaluation is tied to human psychology around what usually happens in midterm years.
This midterm year has moved up more in Q3 than prior midterm years, making it play out differently.
The stronger-than-usual Q3 move is attributed to the asset class being more undervalued than normal.
By the percent-difference measure, crypto has not been entirely below fair value since September and October 2010.
September-October 2010 is framed as the start of crypto around 2009 and the launch of BTC.
The cycle pattern is described as moving from overvaluation to undervaluation and back again.
The previous cycle is said not to have stayed durably overvalued because tighter monetary policy lasted the entire cycle.
The next cycle could avoid that constraint if tighter monetary policy does not last the whole cycle.
If policy is looser, the next cycle might allow a longer overvaluation phase than the last one.
Prior cycles are used to argue that not every cycle has to go deeply overvalued; that depends on monetary policy.
Monetary policy is said to temper expectations without removing the bull market.
In the cycle before the prior durably overvalued phase, crypto was overvalued, cooled off, then became durably overvalued only after 'all the money printing' and much looser monetary policy.
The cycle target is around $10T for the crypto asset class, plus or minus a few trillion.
The implied path is that crypto is still early in the move from undervaluation toward that $10T area.