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3 Stocks Down 50%+ You’ll Regret Not Buying

2026-10-13

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26m

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22 min read

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APLD is the most straightforward AI-infrastructure setup in the video: 1.41 GW leased across five campuses, ~$36B of contracted revenue, 322% last-quarter revenue growth, and a chart sitting on a repeated 19-23 floor after huge post-news pops and deep givebacks. RDW is framed as a space/defense re-rate that already ran from $8.69 to 26.66/26.64 on SpaceX and defense headlines, then collapsed back below $11 despite $117M quarterly revenue, a $542M backlog, and $558M cash. CCXI is the SPAC merger trade: the shell-to-deal cycle, $620M+ trust cash if redemptions stay light, and a post-close setup whose floor disappears at merger closing. ONCY is the biotech outlier: one drug, multiple GI indications, FDA alignment, fast tracks, and a readout-dependent path with the next key event as interim REO033 data by year-end.

  • APLD has rebuilt from a 2022 $1 Bitcoin-miner host into AI data campuses renting power and cooling, with 1.41 GW leased across five campuses in North Dakota, Louisiana, and Alabama.
  • APLD reported about $342M revenue last quarter versus about $81M a year earlier, up 322%, and carries about $36B of contracted revenue over the life of its leases.
  • APLD announced a 1-GW site in Finland on top of its existing footprint, and its June 2025 CoreWeave lease news sent the stock up about 48% in one day and nearly 2x in a week.
  • APLD’s other lease headlines also moved hard: a May $7.5B lease announcement lifted it about 21% in a day, while an October 2025 $5B lease pop faded to a red close.
  • APLD’s last six earnings reactions were down 36%, up 31%, up 16%, up 8%, down 8%, and one flat; next report is expected around early January.
  • APLD is sitting on a proven 19-23 floor after prior stops at 19 in November 2025, 20 in March 2026, and about 23 in July 2026; a close below 19 breaks the setup and puts mid-teens in play.
  • APLD’s upside map is the 50-day in the high 20s, then 32-33 where the 200-day and August high stack, then the low 40s, then the old 50+ high from late May 2026.
  • APLD is below its 50-day in the high 20s and its 200-day in the low 30s, with about 21% of the float short and prior bounces off 19-23 of 120%, 150%, and 44%.
  • RDW ran from $8.69 on May 5 to $17.49 by May 24, tagged 26 and change on May 28, and tripled in 16 trading days before the SpaceX-era euphoria reversed.
  • RDW later fell to $12 on June 24, then $7.76 by late July, after the stock was warned to expect profit taking around the SpaceX IPO and after a June plan to sell up to $500M of new stock.
  • RDW’s business now spans space hardware and defense after buying Edge Autonomy in 2025; Edge Autonomy’s Stalker and Penguin drones serve the US military and NATO allies.
  • RDW last quarter posted $117M revenue, up almost 90%, with a record $542M backlog, about $1.40 in new orders for every $1 built, and 2025 revenue guidance of $450M-$500M.
  • RDW has about $558M in cash and less than $50M in debt, with the stock valued around $2.5B and nearly a quarter of that value sitting in cash.
  • RDW’s chart has a ceiling at 26 and change, a floor at $7.5-$8, and moving averages around $11; a close above $11 reclaims the line, while a close below $7.5-$8 puts $5 back in play.
  • CCXI is a SPAC that will merge with Agility Robotics under a deal valuing Agility at $2.5B and bringing in more than $620M in cash if redemptions stay light.
  • Agility’s Digit robot has logged more than 65,000 hours of paid work, is used at GXO, Schaeffler, and Toyota’s Canada plant, and its Digit 5 is built to lift 50 lb and work about 10 minutes for every 1 minute charging.
  • Agility has more than $300M in multi-year orders for about 1,000 Digit 5 robots, implies roughly $100M a year in recurring revenue, and plans a 10,000-robot-a-year Oregon factory; the robots rent for about $8,500 a month.
  • CCXI traded flat near $10 from February through June, then jumped from just under $10 to almost $20 in 9 trading days after the June 24 deal announcement, before fading to about $11 on lower highs.
  • CCXI’s key reference points are the trust floor a little over $10 plus redemption interest while the merger is pending, then no floor after closing; upside doors are 12-12.5, 13.5-14, 18.5, and the high near 20.
  • Oncolytics’ pelarep is being developed for GI cancers, with more than 1,200 patients treated, and the company is targeting hard-to-treat colorectal RAS-mutant disease and anal cancer.
  • REO022 in colorectal cancer posted about 33% response versus roughly 6%-11% historically, 16.6 months median time to progression versus about 5.7 months historically, and 27 months median overall survival versus about 11.2 months.
  • REO033 is a randomized study of standard care versus standard care plus pelarep in about 60 patients, and the FDA’s August feedback supported expanding it into a pivotal part B where response rate could support accelerated approval and time-to-growth could support full approval.
  • In anal cancer, the goblet study paired pelarep with a checkpoint drug, produced about a 30% response rate and 82% 12-month survival versus about 46% historically, and led to FDA alignment in April plus fast track in July.
  • ONCY received a June US patent on commercial-scale manufacturing that runs into 2044, and the next major catalyst is interim REO033 data by the end of this year.