Bitcoin is stalling at the 50-week moving average, a level that has ended bear markets when reclaimed and confirmed bull markets when lost. The current move is framed as structurally similar to 2018 and 2022: a February low, a slightly lower summer low, then a ~40% countertrend rally into the 50-week MA that could still roll over later in Q4. The case against calling the move unprecedented is that 2018, 2022, and 2026 all saw about 40% rallies off the summer low, and prior cycles often kept dropping to the cycle low after the midterm election. The video ends by treating the next week-by-week close above or below the 50-week MA as the key test and briefly pushes ITC conference tickets before the September 1 price increase.
BTC has at least temporarily stalled at the 50-week moving average; that line is the "line in the sand" where bears would make a final stand if the bear market continues.
BTC dropping below the 50-week MA in 2014, 2018, late 2021, and late 2025 marked the end of the bull market; getting back above it in 2015, 2019, and 2023 marked the start of the bull market and the end of the bear market.
BTC previously rallied above the 200-day MA during bear markets, including 2014 and 2015; in 2015 it broke above the 200-day MA, then got rejected at the 50-week MA.
In 2018 and 2022, BTC rallied up to the 50-week MA and got rejected.
2018 and 2026 share the same structure: a February low, a slightly lower summer low, then a countertrend rally after sweeping the February low.
The summer low was 5,700 in 2018 and 57,000 in 2026; in both years BTC had one more countertrend rally after sweeping the February low.
BTC’s 2018 breakout to the 50-week MA took 51 4-hour candles from breakout candle to local high; the 2026 breakout took exactly 51 4-hour candles as well.
The 2018 rally to the 50-week MA topped in late July; the 2026 rally reached the 50-week MA in late August.
From the summer low to the local top, BTC moved a little over 40% in 2018, a little over 40% in 2022, and just over 40% in 2026.
BTC has previously found summer lows, rallied about 40%, and then gone a little lower later in Q4; 2019 and 2023 showed buying after a small move up from the cycle low beat waiting for a deeper low.
A weekly close above the 50-week MA would put the nail in the coffin of the bear market; stalling there alone does not prove rejection, and BTC can stall for weeks before eventually breaking through.
The 2026 move is not unprecedented; the claim that it has never happened before is false.
In the last couple of cycles, BTC rallied 40% off the summer low and then still went lower later.
If the low is not in, it could come in September, October, November, December, or January.
In the last three market cycles, BTC’s final drop to the cycle bottom came only after the midterm election in early November.
In 2018 and 2022, buying after the summer low still got wrecked later; the stated strategy is to start buying after the summer low and handle what comes later.
The market is being watched one week at a time; ITC conference ticket prices go up on September 1, with at least one more day to buy before the increase and the main conference on November 21 in Miami.