Tesla’s Q2 print and call centered on a split: record-scale AI, robotaxi, Optimus and energy capex on one side, and near-term EPS, margins and free cash flow pressure on the other. The stock reaction was driven less by reported demand than by whether Tesla can keep FSD subscriptions, robotaxi rollout and 10% weekly unsupervised-mile growth believable while capex jumps toward $25B+ and possibly $30B of borrowing. The call also surfaced a merger/SpaceX breadcrumb trail, but the biggest market question remained whether Tesla can turn cybercab precursors, seven-city rollout targets and rising FSD usage into a credible acceleration story. The tone was mixed-to-bullish on the long-term platform, bearish on the near-term cash-flow and execution overhang.
Tesla stock fell from about 369 to 364, down $15 on the day and another $10 after hours, while the deck was being downloaded.
Q2 capex was about $5.8B, up from roughly $2.5B in Q1, and capex was framed as the main reason free cash flow turned negative.
Wall Street had expected free cash flow around -$3.2B to -$3.3B; the print was described as better than feared but still negative.
Capex guidance was pushed to more than $25B for 2026, with talk of borrowing up to $30B to fund robotaxi, Optimus, semis, solar manufacturing and chip capacity.
Tesla said it is spending faster even if capital efficiency is lower, because getting factories done sooner improves NPV.
Q2 deliveries were said to be up 25%, but that did not move the stock because investors were waiting on FSD and cybercab/robotaxi clarity.
FSD subscriptions were described as a key swing factor: about 55% of new deliveries had FSD subscriptions, active FSD customers were estimated around 1.48M, and subscriptions were said to be rising fast.
Trailing-12-month revenue was said to be over $100B for the first time, with year-over-year growth around 15% to 16%.
Operating expenses came in around $4.3B to $4.4B, including roughly $400M more R&D and $150M more SG&A, with AI, Optimus, cybercab and semi work driving the spend.
Core auto gross margin excluding credits fell from 19.2% to 16.3%, with rec credits down to about $146M and warranty/tariff true-ups missing prior-quarter help.
EPS came in at 32 cents, which was below expectations and helped trigger the post-print selloff.
SpaceX holdings produced about a $1B mark-to-market gain after Tesla’s roughly $2B investment earlier in the year, making the quarter look less bad than it would have otherwise.
Tesla said cyber cab began production at Giga Texas, engineering test drives on public roads started in Q2, and employee rides in Texas began this month.
The call said Tesla has robotaxi operations in seven U.S. markets and that unsupervised robotaxi miles are growing more than 10% a week, with over 380,000 unsupervised miles across six cities in two states and no notable safety incidents.
Elon Musk said robo taxi is live in cities in Florida, Texas and the Bay Area, and that the program is constrained by safety and the march of nines, not by demand.
The merger/SpaceX thread pointed to an August 4 window: no merger announcement was expected today, but the surviving entity was expected to address it after the SpaceX earnings call, with SpaceX stock around $120 complicating the math.
Optimus production was said to have started in Fremont after moving the Model S/X lines, with Tesla targeting a much more vertically integrated Optimus 4 and eventually 10 million units a year versus 1 million for Optimus 3.