BTC is still above the short-term-holder cost basis around 75K-78K after a move from just over 60K two months ago to about 77.5K, while crypto sentiment sits at 26 and ETF flows remain weak into the US midterms. The setup is framed as a post-midterm reset: historical S&P 500 gains of 16.6% over the next 12 months, Bitcoin bottoms lining up near election dates, and cycle drawdowns getting shorter and shallower. The strongest forward-looking trade is power-constrained AI infrastructure: US AI data centers are said to face a 70-gigawatt shortfall by 2028, making SpaceX’s compute/power roadmap and spot-compute pricing power the central growth engine. Tesla, SOL, Tether, and crypto options activity are all used as supporting evidence that the market is still in a high-skew, fear-heavy but potentially improving regime.
BTC moved from just over 60,000 a little over two months ago to about 77,500, with the claim that the bear market is already over.
Crypto Fear and Greed is 26, one point from extreme fear; on November 3 crypto was up 0.2% and printed a green box.
BTC was down 3% over 7 days, ETH down 1.38%, BNB down 6.09%; over 1 month BTC was down 8.5%, ETH 14.8%, SOL 20%, BNB 11%, and XRP 14%.
BTC ETF flows were red four of the last five weeks, with IBIT posting its second-biggest dump in months yesterday; ETH ETF flows were worse, red seven of the last eight weeks, with negative net drainage over 3-4 months.
SOL ETF flows were also weak, with four red weeks after 10 very green weeks earlier; Binance outflows were tied to a $6.3 billion hack and 15.4 billion of withdrawals.
BTC is described as outperforming the top 50 old coins over the last 90 days, with the figure 41 as spoken.
BTC support is the short-term holder average price, cited at 75K, 76K, 77K, or 78K depending on the measure; price stayed above it after touching it in mid-September, then rallying to 87K before fading back.
November seasonality is framed as bullish: average November return is 34%, April is the closest comparison at 12% this year, and after prior red Octobers the next phase is described as capitulation and then upside.
Post-midterm history is used as the macro setup: the S&P 500 has gained 16.6% over the next 12 months after midterms, and gridlock is said to help markets by reducing government impact.
BTC cycle bottoms are tied to midterm timing: 71 days after the 2014 midterms, 39 days after 2018, and 1 day after 2022; the thesis is that the bottom was already in months earlier, including January at 60K, a bit in February, and again in summer 2026.
Crypto options positioning is bullishly skewed: nearly 70% of contracts are calls, max pain is around 78,000, and the strongest year-end interest is at 100K and 120K, with some bets at 60K, 40K, and above 260K.
Stock Fear and Greed is 25-26, extreme fear, while the heat map is almost all green ahead of the midterms except PLTR, which got hit despite great earnings yesterday.
For the last month TSLA was the only green mega-cap listed, up 6%; NVDA was down 13%, AVGO up 8%, TSM down nearly 17%, MU down nearly 20%, AMD up 22%, MRVL down 37%, and ALAB down 32%.
GOOGL was said to be down 20% on the month and to have taken its biggest hit ever in history; for the month PLTR was down 10%, BTC down 7%, ETH down 8.5%, SOL down 12%, and MSTR down 17.6%.
Solana app revenue has led for seven straight months at 150 million, about 1.7x Ethereum app revenue and roughly 40% of all crypto revenue; HOOD is a new player now in crypto after September tokenized-stock traction.
Tether is said to hold 150,000 BTC, up from 100,000, more than all public companies except MSTR; SpaceX is also framed as a power-constrained compute winner, with US AI data centers said to be 70 gigawatts short by 2028 versus a 36-gigawatt gap a year ago.
SpaceX is said to be targeting 13 gigawatts of compute within 14 months and 333% growth from 3 gigawatts to 13 gigawatts by December 2027, with quarterly growth rates of 50% from June 2025 to September, 70% from September to March, 40% March to June, 21% June to September, and 76% from 1.7 gigawatts to 3 gigawatts into December; if it has scarce power, spot-compute pricing could be "bonkers."
The IPO comparison flipped away from ANTH: the largest IPO on Earth is no longer said to be Anthropic, its valuation is said to have fallen from 2 trillion to about 1.5 trillion, there is only a 28% chance it gets above 1.75 trillion, and the claim is that both Anthropic and OpenAI have cut projections and valuations.
TSLA FSD is framed as the bright spot: subscriptions are growing over 70% year over year, producing over 2 billion of pure profit, with users spending over 100 a month on average; adoption is said to be spreading country by country, with Germany, Italy, and France named and Europe expected in December or later in spring 2027.
TSLA robotaxi/FSD mileage is said to be adding over a billion miles every 20 days, with over 17 billion self-driving miles total and nearly 5 million miles of robotaxi fares mostly in Texas; the price is said to be beginning to react and to be back in seasonal-pattern behavior.