Extreme fear in stocks and crypto came after one of the year’s biggest VIX spikes, a $3.8 trillion market wipeout, and a semis-led hit where chip makers lost $1.15 trillion in a day and NVDA nearly half a trillion. Crypto weakness is tied to ETF outflows — $870 million from Bitcoin ETFs this week, nearly $300 million net out of ETH ETFs, and about $1 million out of Solana ETFs — while BTC sits at 75,500, near Michael Saylor’s reported $75,451 cost basis. The tape is also a valuation reset: the S&P 500 P/E fell from 24 to 17.75, NVDA is framed as cheaper than the S&P at 13 forward P/E, and several AI/semis names were marked with sharp weekly losses even as TSLA, AMD and PLTR held up better. The back half of the video pivots to a jobs shock, Tesla production changes, and the argument that AI capex is still accelerating, with $46 billion of fresh spend from Meta, GOOGL and MSFT and a bullish thesis that electricity-heavy economies win the AI race.
Fear & greed is in extreme fear for stocks and fear for crypto; crypto fear only moved from 26 to 28.
VIX spiked to one of the highest levels this year, was up over 75% yesterday, then dropped sharply today, reinforcing the claim that fear can unwind fast.
BTC is 75,500, almost exactly Michael Saylor’s reported $75,451 cost basis; November is historically BTC’s best month, yet it is down about 2.3% six days in.
Bitcoin ETF flows drove the move: this week’s outflows reached 870 million, and the heuristic given is that every $1 billion of ETF flows moves price about 3%.
ETH ETF net inflows are now nearly $300 million out, with eight of the last nine weeks red for ETH ETFs.
Solana ETFs are down only about $1 million this week while BTC and ETH bled, and SOL is described as running counter to BTC and ETH today.
The market just saw the worst week since the March 16, 2020 COVID crash, with a $3.8 trillion loss; semis lost $1.15 trillion in a day even though they are 12% of the market and accounted for 30% of the hit.
NVDA alone lost nearly half a trillion dollars in the day; weekly moves cited were MRVL -29%, ASTS -29%, MU -21%, QQQ nearly -5%, NVDA nearly -7%, TSLA -9%, BTC about -3.9% to -3.95%, while AMD and PLTR were both +12% and GOOGL +2.88%.
The S&P 500 P/E reset from as high as 24 to 17.75, while NVDA’s forward P/E is 13 and is framed as cheaper than the whole S&P despite faster growth and higher profitability.
TSLA is called very strong today after a hard rebound; Elon posted that Tesla will scale back Cybertruck production to make room at Giga Texas for more cybercabs.
Cybercab capacity is said to be 125,000 a year, with a likely doubling to 250,000 a year; the broader Tesla factory strategy cited is that Model S and Model X were killed for Optimus, Cybertruck is being sacrificed for Cybercab, and Model 3 may be next.
Elon Musk retweeted Herbert’s message that Tesla’s chip effort is moving at 'Tesla speed, not semiconductor speed,' that Terafactory is going well, and that the future is 'watch the video.'
NVDA is described as deep under the 200-day moving average, under 'level five' in an ATR model, with a bargain zone of 189 to 180 and a mean-reversion level of 188.50; the setup says it never falls under the 200-day.
ASTS is trading around 180 versus a 375 target, with Northland at 315, even though it was around 500 a few months ago.
LRCX is nearly at 'level two' under the 200-day after dropping to nearly under 200; it also announced a buyback of 10% of the stock, worth $25 billion.
MU is down 21% on the heat map, with a stated level of 695 and the claim that AI spend will not go to zero because its supply is sold out for years; ORCL was avoided as a short, then fell further after MSFT said it no longer wants to rent Oracle AI cloud capacity.
Microsoft is said to be souring on neo clouds after a regime change, with an 'extinction level event' for about 200 neo clouds because verticalizing, power, cooling, memory, chips, and permits are all hard.
A paper claims AI productivity can be valued by human labor value versus energy use, and finds smaller simpler models can deliver 2.5x more economic value per unit of energy than big fancy models.
The abundance thesis conclusion is that the nation with the most 'jewels' — electricity — will be the wealthiest, and GDP per capita is directly correlated with electricity production.
CAPEX is not slowing: META closed 15 billion, GOOGL 6 billion in Europe, and MSFT issued another 25 billion in notes, totaling 46 billion of fresh capex spend this week.
Jobs came in at 165,000 versus 59,000 expected, with unemployment steady at 4.1%, and that hot labor market is cited as a reason traditional stocks are moving today.