TSLA’s 14% drop after AI/robotics spending and negative free cash flow is framed as the start of a 1-3 month bottoming process, with a chart-based buy zone between 300 and 250 and a possible bounce area near 281 if the prior 35% drawdown pattern repeats. MU is treated as a momentum trade: millions of dollars of next-week calls, a 996 trigger, 1,035 upside, and 1,089 if 996 holds. MSFT is the longer setup: bearish divergence, repeated rejection at 40240, and a near-term long bias on any dip under 375, with the 50-day and 100-day averages “kissing” like the 2022 setup that preceded the best buying window of the next 3 years.
TSLA fell 14% on the day referenced after investors balked at AI/robotics spending and free cash flow turning negative.
Buying TSLA at 350 in 2021 would have left it below 320 five years later, used as evidence that the stock can sit underwater for years.
The last time TSLA had a -14% day, it took 60 days to find the bottom, and the subsequent buy range produced a move of over 100%.
The current TSLA setup is expected to reach the 350-day moving average after the drop and consolidation.
TSLA’s chart-based major buying window is 300-250, with 300 singled out as a point of control likely to provoke a reaction.
Applying the prior 35% peak-to-bounce drawdown to the current TSLA setup implies 281 as a possible bounce level, matching the earlier sell-off pattern.
TSLA is expected to find its bottom over the next 1 to 3 months, but not in a straight line; further consolidation points and deeper drops are expected before 250.
Some puts sold into TSLA earnings were cashed out for $2,000 profit per put.
MU saw millions of dollars of call options expiring next week being bought, and MU was up on the day while still pressing into key resistance.
MU’s trade trigger is 996, with upside targets at 1,035 first and 1,089 if 996 holds; the stop is 983 on the trade called out at 815.
MU could fade or consolidate above 996, but the setup favors a push through resistance as a profit-taking opportunity.
MSFT has printed bullish divergence for a long time: June price made a lower low while momentum made a much higher high.
MSFT needs a close above 40240 to turn bullish; it rejected that level twice and then pulled back after a big May move that became a bearish trend with a lower low.
In the next 30 days, any MSFT candle dipping under 375 is a long entry, and the preferred trade structure is selling puts below spot and rolling premiums into long LEAPs.
MSFT’s 50-day moving average (red) and 100-day moving average (blue) are kissing now; in 2022, that touch came at the best buying opportunity of the next 3 years, so a repeat would mean green candles stacking upward.